The results of a study by a data scientist, shows that Bitcoin could shoot well beyond $55,000 by the end of 2018. According to the data scientist Xoel L López Barata, the price of Bitcoin could be about $55,530 by the time we get to the end of 2018.
What Are the Chances of it Staying the Same?
According to results of the same study, there is only a 10 percent chance that the price of Bitcoin will not change. This recent study joins a plethora of other studies, which claim that the price of Bitcoin could shoot upwards significantly by the end of 2018. This is despite Bitcoin having halved its price in less than a month.
Another recent study by Trace Mayer showed that Bitcoin going above $14,000 would represent an overvaluation. However, this study also showed that the crypto-coin had the potential to hit $100,000 by the end of 2018.
Are These Findings Reliable?
According to Barata, he he used the Monte Carlo simulation. This is basically a simulation that assumes future behavior will be similar to past behavior. With this data, a data scientist can develop random walks. These are random versions of the future based on past trends. He then used this data to produce a refined graph showing the potential future price of Bitcoin in USD.
After creating his model, it was revealed that Bitcoin could be worth as much as $55 thousand in 2018. However, Barata was quite cautious about anyone using his findings. He said,
It’s important to note that this estimation doesn’t have to be taken to the letter, and it’s better used as a way to find confidence intervals on where the future distribution where be.
He said that at the current levels, an 80% confidence interval for Bitcoin prices was between $13,200 and $271,277. Mainstream media has been awash with stories of a potential bubble in the past week. However, this has had little effect on major long-term investors, who say they intend to hold on to their coins.
In fact, those who still believe in Bitcoin claim that it has exhibited the same exact behavior during the second week of January for the past four years. This is helping to boost the weight of the methodology used by Barata. He added that he was well aware that nothing could keep going up forever. In his closing statement, he said that all anyone could do was to wait and see what happens.
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